Smart Money Scores
Smart Money Scores rate every Polymarket trader from -100 to +100 based on their full on-chain trading history. The score tells you whether a trader has been consistently profitable and how much you should trust that signal.
What Goes Into a Score
Every score combines two dimensions:
Trading performance — how profitable a trader has been, accounting for both return on investment and consistency across positions. Larger positions carry more weight than tiny ones, so a few small lucky wins don't inflate the score.
Track record depth — how much trading history supports the performance signal. More trades, higher volume, and meaningful position sizes all increase confidence in the score. A wallet with only a handful of trades will have its score pulled toward zero, no matter how good those trades look.
Interpreting Scores
+50 to +100
Highly profitable, strong track record
+10 to +50
Profitable overall
-10 to +10
Near break-even
-50 to -10
Losing money overall
-100 to -50
Significant losses
Confidence Levels
Every score includes a confidence level based on the trader's track record:
High
Extensive trading history — very reliable
Medium
Moderate history — reasonably reliable
Low
Limited data — interpret with caution
Data Sources
Scores use two types of PnL data for a complete picture:
Realized PnL — profit/loss from closed positions in resolved markets. This is definitive — the market has settled and the outcome is known.
Unrealized PnL — profit/loss from active positions in open markets, calculated using live CLOB midpoint prices. This reflects current market sentiment about open positions.
How Scores Differ from Simple PnL
A naive leaderboard sorted by total PnL would rank whale wallets at the top regardless of skill. PredictionPro's scoring model accounts for:
Position size — returns are measured relative to capital deployed, not in absolute dollars
Consistency — sustained performance across many trades is rewarded over a single lucky bet
Data quality — traders with limited history are scored conservatively to prevent flukes from ranking high
Current exposure — active positions are valued at live market prices so open risk is reflected
Minimum Requirements
A trader must have at least 10 closed trades to qualify for scoring in a market analysis. This prevents wallets with trivial activity from cluttering results.
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