Prediction Bonds

Prediction Bonds surfaces high-probability Polymarket outcomes as yield-bearing opportunities. When an outcome is trading at 91-99 cents and resolves to $1.00, the discount represents an annualized yield.

How It Works

When a Polymarket outcome is very likely to resolve "Yes" but hasn't settled yet, the shares trade at a discount to their $1.00 payout. For example:

• A share priced at $0.95 with 30 days to resolution represents a 5-cent profit over 30 days

• Annualized, that's approximately 61% APY

PredictionPro scans all active markets for outcomes priced between 91 and 99 cents and calculates the annualized yield based on time to expected resolution.

How APY Is Calculated

APY = ((1.00 - price) / price) * (365 / days_to_maturity) * 100

The closer to $1.00 and the shorter the time to resolution, the lower the yield. The further from $1.00 (higher risk), the higher the yield.

Browsing Bonds

The Bonds page shows a sortable table:

Column	Description
Market	The market and outcome
Price	Current share price (91-99 cents)
Maturity	Expected resolution date
Yield (APY)	Annualized percentage yield

Sorting

Sort the table by any column — yield, maturity, price, or volume — to find opportunities that match your criteria.

Important Considerations

• Not risk-free — these are prediction market positions, not bonds. If the outcome resolves differently than expected, you lose your investment.

• Price reflects probability — a share at $0.95 implies the market gives it a 95% chance of resolving Yes. The 5% chance of loss is the source of the yield.

• Liquidity varies — some markets have thin order books. Check volume before entering a position.

Access

Prediction Bonds is a Pro feature. Upgrade to Pro to access it.